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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
Louisville, KY
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FXUS63 KLMK 201037
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
637 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Updated at 313 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...Another Hot and Muggy Day Today With Strong Storms Possible This
Afternoon...

Early morning satellite and observations show mostly clear skies
across the region.  Radar is quiet across southern IN and central
KY, but we do have some convection just north of our area.  This
activity should stay to our north.  Temperatures were generally in
the lower 70s with the typical heat islands still in the low 80s.
Temperatures will likely drop another degree or two with most
locations remaining in the 70s.

For Today, skies look to start off mostly sunny and that should send
temperatures well into the upper 80s and low 90s by noon.  High
temperatures this afternoon will likely top out in the low-mid 90s
once again.  Heat indices this afternoon will likely reach the low
100s in many areas.

By mid-late afternoon, focus will shift to an expected MCS dropping
into the region from the northwest.  Most of the convective allowing
models have been all over this for the last 24 hours or so.  The
latest multi-model consensus suggests that it will enter southwest
IN around 18-19Z and then push into KY by 20-21Z.  Most of the
models show this line weakening as it comes into our region.  This
is due to the line becoming outflow dominated as its cold pool
rushes out ahead of the system.  This cold pool could also serve as
a focus for further convective development this afternoon.

The environment in advance of this system will be capable of
supporting strong/severe weather as we will have plenty of surface
based instability to work with.  The only real negative here is that
overall environmental shear is rather marginal (=

Forecast Discussion from:
NOAA-NWS
Script developed by: El Dorado Weather
Adapted by FrankfortWeather.us