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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
Louisville, KY

FXUS63 KLMK 171351

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
951 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 951 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

A small area of rain and embedded thunder moved across much of
central Kentucky this morning but has been progressive enough to not
cause significant problems.

Though we will see much more cloud cover today than we did yesterday
and instability this afternoon will be weaker than on Sunday, a
shortwave trough approaching from the west will cause scattered
thunderstorm redevelopment this afternoon. Heavy rain should be the
main threat in the 1.75" precipitable water air. Storm motion looks
to be around 30-35mph, but training will be possible, plus some
locations have 1-hour Flash Flood Guidance numbers below an inch, so
it won`t take much heavy rain to cause issues.


.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Juicy and boundary-rich environment in place for the short-term, and
the main challenge will be placement and coverage of more
convection. Stratiform precip that lingered behind Sunday evening`s
storms has now largely dissipated, but new convection has developed
near the Kentucky/Tennessee line, and it remains to be seen how
sharply that will cut northward. Impacts will be an even bigger
deal, as copious amounts of rain fell mainly along and north of
Interstate 64, and 1-hr FFG in some of those areas is now less than
1 inch.

Hi-res models have been struggling at times with run-to-run
consistency, but do show the current storms over south-central KY
lifting NE and intensifying as they get north of the Parkways later
this morning. Synoptic-scale models paint with a broader brush, and
show storms re-igniting this afternoon over the same locations where
some of Sunday`s heaviest rain fell. These are usually overdone, but
hard to write off completely in this environment, and given the very
low FFG, will carry a Flash Flood Watch for roughly the northern
half of the forecast area. Another wave will kick through late
tonight into Tuesday morning, so will continue the watch through
at least midday Tuesday. Not expecting a repeat performance of
Sunday hailers as any CAPE today is of the tall and skinny variety.

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

...Unsettled Pattern Continues...

The longterm starts off wet as a shortwave moving through a zonal
pattern pushes out of the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio
Valley that continues to lie south of a quasi-stationary boundary
and within a moist and conditionally unstable environment. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms ahead of this shortwave will continue
potential flood concerns, therefore the Flash Flood Watch will
remain valid until midday Tuesday. Models generally agree that
precipitation chances should begin to wane by early Wednesday
morning with dry conditions through much of the day. The Euro model
is advertising a chance of light rain throughout the day, but the
GFS and CMC keep any showers/storms at bay until Wednesday late
afternoon/evening. Severe potential exists late Wednesday into early
Thursday morning with SBCAPE values ranging from 2500 to almost 4000
J/kg across the area accompanied by modest deep layer shear. But
increased southwest flow will see PWATs return to close to 2.00
inches, which will once again turn our focus toward potential flood
issues. Models suggest a much need drying out for much of Friday.
Precipitation totals through Friday range from 2 to 4 inches, though
the convective nature could see localized areas receiving much less
or much more.

By Friday evening, long range models begin to diverge. The Canadian
and Euro models continue dry conditions through Saturday, whereas
the GFS advertises another shortwave bringing showers and storms
back by Friday night through Saturday. Models come back into
agreement for a wet Sunday and Monday.


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 655 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Initial challenge will be any persistence of scud, which previously
brought in a brief IFR ceiling at LEX and HNB. Recent trends have
been for it to scatter out to not being mentioned in those sites,
though SDF is still carrying a FEW003. Will initialize VFR, with
high-end MVFR at HNB.

Forecast confidence remains low as it is a moist and boundary-rich
environment, with plenty of questions as to which boundaries will
fire. One current band of precip north of I-64 and another across
central Kentucky are not affecting any of the terminals at this
time. Destabilization will be limited but can`t rule out mentioning
VCTS in any of the terminals this afternoon.

Another wave coming through the Ohio Valley later tonight will bring
increasing rain chances toward daybreak on Tuesday. Will limit
thunder mention to VCTS, with MVFR ceilings dropping into fuel-
alternate at all sites except LEX.


IN...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for INZ076>079-083-

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for KYZ025-029>043-



Short Term...RAS
Long Term...CG

Forecast Discussion from:
Script developed by: El Dorado Weather
Adapted by FrankfortWeather.us