NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
Louisville, KY

FXUS63 KLMK 140715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
315 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 159 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Weak surface high pressure and a building upper ridge along with a
lack of deep moisture will result in light winds and mostly
clear/partly cloudy skies today and tonight. Thicknesses and most
model data suggest highs this afternoon in the middle and upper 80s,
with less than a 50% chance of temps in the 90s in most locations
with the exception of urban Louisville and some spots in southern
Kentucky. 5H heights will be a bit higher today than yesterday. So,
will add a degree or two to yesterday`s highs and have afternoon
MaxTs mostly in the mid-upper 80s with some locations hitting 90.
Lows tonight will be in the 60s. Could see some patchy fog in
eastern valleys toward morning.


.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

The long-term begins with upper flow only covering the upper half of
the CONUS. Within this flow, a trough will move from near the
Mississippi River to near the Ohio River on Wednesday. At that
point, the flow over the northern CONUS becomes zonal and high
pressure remains over much of the southern CONUS. This leaves a
convergence area / boundary over the Ohio Valley. Low level moisture
will begin to get funneled through the Ohio River Valley. This lifts
precipitable water values over 2" Wednesday night into Thursday. It
appears these high levels of moisture will remain over the region
until at least the beginning of the weekend.

Daily temperatures looks about the same for each day this week.
Expect highs in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the 70s
starting on Thursday. Heat indices will reach over 100 degrees this
weekend, and winds will likely remain light providing little relief
from the heat.

Shear appears to be week this week after looking at soundings. Not
expecting well organized storms, but with instability and lots of
moisture, expect pulse type thunderstorms. Expect storms to get
going during the afternoon and evening hours during peak heating.
With high precipitable water values covering a fairly large area,
believe any storm that does form will be a heavy rain producer. That
will likely be the main issue with the showers and thunderstorms
this week.


.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this TAF cycle, although
will have to deal with some potential vis restrictions in fog toward
dawn at BWG/LEX/HNB. Otherwise, winds are expected to be light and
variable with mostly clear skies until few-sct Cu around 4-5 K feet
set in with heating tomorrow thanks to a flat ridge of surface high
pressure moving through the region.




Short Term...13
Long Term...KDW

Forecast Discussion from:
Script developed by: El Dorado Weather
Adapted by FrankfortWeather.us