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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
Louisville, KY

FXUS63 KLMK 162320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
620 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

A closed 500 mb low moving out of Mexico into west Texas today will
fill in and race toward the Ohio Valley as a short wave by Sunday
morning.  Ahead of this feature, southerly winds will help usher in
relatively higher surface moisture into the region, priming the
atmosphere for light rain showers in central Kentucky and southern
Indiana before midday. Chances for measurable precipitation during
the day will range from 50 to 80 percent, but max amounts will only
be up to around a tenth of an inch. A few sprinkles may linger in
the Lake Cumberland region for a while after sunset, but for the
most part, the showers will have moved east by evening.

Once the clouds start to drift in tonight they will persist into the
middle part of the work week, so if you missed out on your vitamin D
with today`s sunshine, you`ll have to wait until Wednesday to
replenish.  Oh, there will be a few breaks in the clouds before
then, but you won`t see as much blue as today for a while.

The gusty southwest winds that helped push much of the area into the
50s today will diminish with the setting sun, but the southerly
winds continuing overnight, along with the increase in clouds, will
help keep temperatures up, resulting in lows above freezing for most
locales - ranging from 32 to 37. Most highs on Sunday will be from
45 to 50, with lows Sunday night ranging from the mid 30s in
southern Indiana to the mid 40s near the Tennessee line.


.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

First things first: pay attention to the weather for next weekend,
but don`t freak out over it. At this point, the forecast for
Christmas in the Ohio Valley is still best represented by an
excellent post from our friends at the NWS office in Kansas City
(see https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRFV-V6VwAAY5kE.jpg:large ). In
other words, it`s still too far out to put any stock in any specific
model run - ESPECIALLY the extreme outliers.

The above being said, the basic pattern for the week ahead looks
like this: the Ohio Valley will be sitting in the middle of split
flow, with two wet systems that will try to bring precipitation to
the area through the week.

The first will be mainly along the Gulf Coast, but could drift as
far north as the southern half of Kentucky from late Tuesday through
Wednesday night.  This will be a warm system, given its origin as a
weakening trof coming out of the desert southwest, and will produce
no rain for Indiana, and only a little rain south of the
Bluegrass Parkway.

The second will come in later in the week from the northwest -
possibly as early as overnight Thursday night. This is the one that
has all the model-watchers buzzing.  Thanks to several days of warm
air advection off the Gulf, we`ll start out in a mild, wet airmass
that will fuel rain showers ahead of a cold front diving southeast
from Canada.  As the colder air spills into the region, there is a
chance that the rain could change over to snow, and yes, somewhere
along that line, there will be a transition line from rain to snow,
but it`s WAAAAY to early to pinpoint where this will be, other than
to say somewhere east of the Mississippi and south of the Great
Lakes.  With that in mind, there IS currently a chance for snow on
Saturday, BUT there`s just as good a chance that the precip will
move out ahead of the cold air, resulting in just a few flurries.

So, to repeat: pay attention to the weather for next weekend, but
don`t freak out over it.  If you`ll be traveling, keep up with the
latest forecast and alter your plans as necessary...if necessary.

A quick rundown of the temperatures for the week: Highs will be
mainly in the 50s Monday and Tuesday - with a few lower 60s not out
of the question.  By Wednesday, we see a slight cool down into the
40s to lower 50s, before a rebound back into the 50s again ahead of
the cold front coming in Friday.  Saturday`s highs will only be in
the 30s to lower 40s as the cold air moves in behind the cold


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

Forecast Discussion from:
Script developed by: El Dorado Weather
Adapted by FrankfortWeather.us