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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
Louisville, KY

FXUS63 KLMK 181323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
923 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Temperatures across the region have warmed above freezing this
morning, so have let the frost advisory expire. Rest of forecast
remains on track.


.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Updated at 245 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

The CWA sits in front of an advancing upper trough with its axis
positioned through eastern Iowa. At the surface, high pressure is
centered over central Indiana with a larger area running parallel to
the axis of the upper ridge. As this upper ridge moves east and
pushes the surface high east, surface winds will veer from the east
to the south by 6z tonight.

Today, many will wake up to frost on the ground or their vehicles as
the area drops to the mid 30s this morning. A frost advisory is in
place over much of the area, but temperatures will warm quickly with
a southern component to the wind and clear skies overhead.
Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s today.

Tonight, winds straight out of the south will keep temperatures in
the 40s for most. This will keep frost at bay for all but the
coolest areas. Areas between the Lake Cumberland area through the
Bluegrass will see some broken cloud cover from the low pressure
system moving north from the Gulf of Mexico.

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Updated at 255 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

A weakening cold front will largely fall apart as it approaches the
Ohio Valley on Saturday. Meanwhile the remains of potential Tropical
Storm Nestor, currently still just a weak disturbance over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, will be crossing the southeast United
States accompanied by widespread convection. Southern Indiana and
central Kentucky will sit right in between the two systems, so will
continue with very low PoPs and QPF for us.

After a break on Sunday, the next cold front will come at us as the
new work week begins. Strong low pressure will deepen as it lifts
from Minnesota into Ontario in conjunction with a sharp 500mb trough
and strong upper jet. The surface cold front will pivot through
southern Indiana and central Kentucky Monday evening, preceded by a
wide band of showers and embedded thunder. A line of stronger
convection may come through just ahead of the front, with enhanced
wind gusts briefly above the gradient winds associated with the
system. Those winds will help pull afternoon temperatures well into
the 70s.

The storm system will pull off to the east Monday night. Surface dew
point and precipitable water forecasts have increased slightly since
yesterday`s model runs, and we have 1 to 1.5 inches of rain in the
forecast, with possibly some higher local amounts. This system
should do a good job putting another dent in the drought, even if
those numbers aren`t quite reached.

Tuesday through Thursday high pressure advancing from Texas to the
East Coast will provide us with dry weather and seasonable


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

VFR conditions will last through the forecast period with high
pressure still in the area. Winds under 10 knots will continue from
the southeast today, but as the surface high moves over Ohio, winds
will back towards the east again tonight.




Short Term...KDW
Long Term...13

Forecast Discussion from:
Script developed by: El Dorado Weather
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