NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
Louisville, KY

FXUS63 KLMK 181036

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
636 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Early morning observations reveal clear skies across central
Kentucky and southern Indiana.  Temperatures are a bit warmer this
morning compared to 24 hours ago.  Currently temps range from the
upper 30s in the valleys to the upper 40s on the ridges.  No
significant weather is expected through sunrise and temperatures
should fall a few more degrees prior to sunrise.  Lows this morning
will range from the upper 30s in the valleys to the lower-mid 40s
elsewhere.  Frost doesn`t look to be an issue this morning, even in
the coldest valleys.  However, steam fog will likely be seen on
area ponds, creeks, and lakes.

For today, high pressure will remain in control of our weather
pattern providing sunny skies and mild conditions.  Highs this
afternoon will range from the mid to upper 60s over the Bluegrass
and the I-75 corridor to the lower 70s in areas along and west of I-
65.  Clear skies are expected to continue tonight with lows mainly
in the lower 40s.  A few of the more protected valley locations
could reach the upper 30s once again.

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

The long term begins Tuesday morning with upper level ridge axis
over the MS Valley and expansive surface high pressure over much of
the eastern US. Expect continued pleasant Fall weather through
Wednesday with temperatures reaching into the low 70s and falling
into the mid to upper 40s. Winds will remain light Tuesday as the
surface high centers remains near the CWA, but as the high retreats
to the SE Wednesday, winds will pick up out of the SW with possible
gusts around 15mph.

A cold front will sweep through the area on Thursday as an upper low
traverses from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes. FROPA looks
to occur from around sunrise through early afternoon with model
soundings showing very little instability and discontinuous moisture
depths. CAPE values remain less the 300 J/kg, which likely result in
a gloomy light rain scenario typical of the Autumn months. Tight
pressure gradient provide breezy conditions with WSW winds gusting

By Friday, a ridge of surface high pressure will extend southward
out of Ontario. Shortwave impulses aloft will propagate around a
deep closed low that will drift south from Hudson Bay to Great
Lakes. This will result in periods of mid to upper level cloudiness,
but current thinking is that the area will remain dry. Next rain
chances will arrive Sunday as weak isentropic lift enters the region
on the eastern wing of a warm frontal boundary. Temperatures through
this period will be a few degrees below normal with highs in the low
to mid 60s and morning lows in the 40s.


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 635 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

IMPACTS: None.  VFR conditions expected.

DISCUSSION:  High pressure at the surface and increasing ridging
aloft will result in VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24-
30 hours.  Light westerly to west-southwesterly winds will be see
during the day with light and variable winds at night.

CONFIDENCE: High confidence on all elements.




Short Term...MJ
Long Term....CG

Forecast Discussion from:
Script developed by: El Dorado Weather
Adapted by FrankfortWeather.us