NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
Louisville, KY
LMK
LMK
000 FXUS63 KLMK 181036 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 636 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Early morning observations reveal clear skies across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Temperatures are a bit warmer this morning compared to 24 hours ago. Currently temps range from the upper 30s in the valleys to the upper 40s on the ridges. No significant weather is expected through sunrise and temperatures should fall a few more degrees prior to sunrise. Lows this morning will range from the upper 30s in the valleys to the lower-mid 40s elsewhere. Frost doesn`t look to be an issue this morning, even in the coldest valleys. However, steam fog will likely be seen on area ponds, creeks, and lakes. For today, high pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern providing sunny skies and mild conditions. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid to upper 60s over the Bluegrass and the I-75 corridor to the lower 70s in areas along and west of I- 65. Clear skies are expected to continue tonight with lows mainly in the lower 40s. A few of the more protected valley locations could reach the upper 30s once again. .Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 The long term begins Tuesday morning with upper level ridge axis over the MS Valley and expansive surface high pressure over much of the eastern US. Expect continued pleasant Fall weather through Wednesday with temperatures reaching into the low 70s and falling into the mid to upper 40s. Winds will remain light Tuesday as the surface high centers remains near the CWA, but as the high retreats to the SE Wednesday, winds will pick up out of the SW with possible gusts around 15mph. A cold front will sweep through the area on Thursday as an upper low traverses from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes. FROPA looks to occur from around sunrise through early afternoon with model soundings showing very little instability and discontinuous moisture depths. CAPE values remain less the 300 J/kg, which likely result in a gloomy light rain scenario typical of the Autumn months. Tight pressure gradient provide breezy conditions with WSW winds gusting 15-25mph. By Friday, a ridge of surface high pressure will extend southward out of Ontario. Shortwave impulses aloft will propagate around a deep closed low that will drift south from Hudson Bay to Great Lakes. This will result in periods of mid to upper level cloudiness, but current thinking is that the area will remain dry. Next rain chances will arrive Sunday as weak isentropic lift enters the region on the eastern wing of a warm frontal boundary. Temperatures through this period will be a few degrees below normal with highs in the low to mid 60s and morning lows in the 40s. && .Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 635 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 IMPACTS: None. VFR conditions expected. DISCUSSION: High pressure at the surface and increasing ridging aloft will result in VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24- 30 hours. Light westerly to west-southwesterly winds will be see during the day with light and variable winds at night. CONFIDENCE: High confidence on all elements. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Short Term...MJ Long Term....CG Aviation.....MJ
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS |
Script developed by: El Dorado Weather Adapted by FrankfortWeather.us |
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