NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
Louisville, KY
LMK

000
FXUS63 KLMK 040543
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1243 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures likely into the 70s today into early next week.

* Wet pattern next week, though right now chances for severe weather
  look relatively low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

Forecast remains on track this evening. Fairly mild temperatures
won`t fall too much more as low level moisture/warm air advection
continues overnight. The combination of clouds and light but steady
southerly winds should also help keep fog chances low despite
surface RH`s near 100% toward dawn tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 307 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

Afternoon satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.  Earlier cloud cover and fog have
mixed out, but where the clouds lingered, temperatures have been a
little slower to warm up this afternoon.  KY Mesonet temperature map
shows readings in the lower 70s across western KY and across the
Lake Cumberland areas.  A few relative minimum spots were noted, one
down in the Bowling Green/Scottsville area where earlier cloud cover
limited heating.  Here temperatures were in the mid 60s.  Another
relative minimum was up in the Bluegrass region where low clouds
just cleared out a couple of hours ago and temps were in the lower
60s.  For the remainder of the afternoon, mostly sunny skies are
expected.  Highs on the day will be in the upper 60s to around 70 in
the I-65 corridor and points west.  Out across the I-75 corridor and
into the Bluegrass, highs may reach the mid 60s for highs.

For this evening and tonight, look for temperatures to fall off into
the upper 50s/lower 60s this evening.  Latest guidance indicates
that a southerly flow will continue with some weak isentropic lift.
This will likely bring an increase in cloud cover across the region
later this evening and into the overnight hours.  Given the expected
wind field and increase in cloud cover, fog should not be an issue
overnight.  Lows will be a bit warmer with lower 50s across the
Bluegrass and mid-upper 50s in the I-65 corridor and points west.

For Monday, we`ll likely start the day off with some morning cloud
cover, but that looks to mix out by mid-late morning.  A continued
south/southwest flow is expected and with a tightening pressure
gradient and good mixing, winds should be come gusty in the
afternoon with gusts of 20-25 mph being common.  As for
temperatures, we`ll see a gradient across the region with lower 70s
in the Bluegrass region.  Mid-upper 70s will be found from the I-65
corridor and points west.  Will not be surprised to see a few spots
top 80 degrees in our far west, but the best chances of that look to
be west of the Natcher/I-165 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

Monday Night through Tuesday...

We`ll start off dry Monday evening as our area will be located
between two sfc lows, though rain chances will begin to filter in
from the west by early Tuesday morning as a southern stream
shortwave and associated frontal boundary enters the OH/TN Valley.
Breezy WAA southerly flow and increasing cloud cover will promote a
mild night temperature-wise, with lows forecast in the 50s.

Showery and stormy weather is expected for Tuesday as a sluggish
cold front sweeps through the region. There still remains some
disagreement between model guidance on how much instability will be
available and whether any will be sfc based. SPC highlights our area
in general thunder, with a Marginal risk to our west for Monday, and
general thunder continuing for Tuesday. This appears well placed
given the weak environmental shear expected across central KY and
southern IN. However, we do have a decent chance for heavy rainfall
and maybe some training of moderate to heavy rainfall along the
front throughout the day. Temps will be well above normal for early
March, with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s.


Wednesday - Thursday...

Rain showers and maybe some rumbles of thunder will linger into
Wednesday as that front struggles to push out of the area. However,
drier conditions will eventually settle back in by Wednesday
evening, which has been the trend with the last few forecast
packages. QPF for Monday night through Wednesday ranges from 1-2
inches. Temps on Wednesday will be a touch cooler with upper 50s and
low 60s forecast. Dry weather continues for Thursday as brief mid-
level ridging building over the Ohio Valley. Temps on Thursday will
be in the low to mid 60s.


Friday through the Weekend...

By the end of the work week, we`ll be watching another shortwave
come across the central US, bringing another round of shower
activity for Friday and into the weekend. Large discrepancies
remain between the model guidance, so overall confidence is limited.
However, there still appears to be a consensus that we`ll lack
instability with this wave. Potential sfc low and associated cold
front may push through the region by Saturday, with PoPs for Friday,
Saturday, and lingering into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2024

The TAF sites are VFR at this hour with a light to steady SSE wind,
and a mix of mid and high clouds. It appears we will see an uptick
in the lower level cloud cover as me move through the overnight to
the mid morning hours. Have stayed pretty optimistic with this cloud
cover staying just on the VFR side, however have hinted at some MVFR
potential with a Sct020 to Sct025 layer as well as a TEMPO group at
LEX where some ceilings just upstream have gone MVFR. Any MVFR
should be fairly brief, and will monitor overnight.

Outside of that, look for stronger S flow from mid to late morning
onward, with any cloud decks rising to and scattering around 5 K
feet. A few afternoon gusts up around 20-25 mph are possible as
well. Winds slacken later tonight some thin high clouds overhead.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DM
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...BJS

Forecast Discussion from:
NOAA-NWS
Script developed by: El Dorado Weather
Adapted by FrankfortWeather.us