NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
Louisville, KY
LMK
LMK
000 FXUS63 KLMK 010645 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 245 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 Current radar shows a few lingering showers in central and eastern KY on the north side of the frontal boundary now draped W-E across TN. Light showers will linger until around sunrise across our SE CWA. Patchy fog and low stratus have also developed but also should dissipate shortly after sunrise. The day should see mostly to partly sunny skies with diurnal cu development and highs reaching a bit higher than yesterday with afternoon max temps in the low to mid 80s. HRRR Near-Surface Smoke shows an impulse of higher concentrations moving southward into southern Indiana and north central KY later this afternoon and persisting overnight, so expect to see hazy conditions by sunset. A surface low currently over southern WI will continue to move east across the Great Lakes throughout the day and in doing so drop another cold front southward into our area by this evening. Atmospheric moisture is much less though with PWATs around an inch or less, so only included slight chance mention in the grids for portions of southern Indiana and north central KY. Temperatures and dew points will fall Sunday night into Monday morning as modified cP airmass drifts over the region. Expect morning min temps in the mid 50s across southern Indiana increasing southward to low 60s across southern KY. && .Long Term...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 There is excellent model and ensemble agreement on the large-scale pattern for the upcoming work week, with broad scale troughing dominating most of the eastern U.S. and surface high pressure resting just north of our region at least to midweek. By Wednesday an inverted trough over the Appalachians could allow for some light rain showers to form along and east of the I-75 corridor. Pattern stays similar for Thursday/Friday before showing a break Saturday. By then, ensembles wash out the pattern aloft, but deterministic models individually show varying shortwave ridging/troughing passing through. Even with any disturbances coming through, available moisture is somewhat limited, so will keep any rain chances for this period fairly low. Temperatures for most of the week will be a few degrees below normal. Models spreads are real low, again indicating the confidence in solutions mentioned above. We get closer to normal by the end of the week though and to start the weekend. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 128 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 Showers and thunderstorms continue to move through TN along a weak frontal boundary while radar shows a few light showers moving through central into SE KY. Expect intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions through Sunday morning as low stratus and patchy fog set up over all sites except SDF, which should remain VFR throughout the period. NW winds will pick during the day with possible gusts up to 15kt under SCT to BKN skies. By late afternoon, smoke from western wildfires may mix down to the surface and restrict VIS to low end VFR/high end MVFR. Another weak cold front will also drop southward into the area bringing a slight chance of light showers, but probability and confidence is too small at this point to include in TAFs. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Short Term...CG Long Term...RJS Aviation...CG
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS |
Script developed by: El Dorado Weather Adapted by FrankfortWeather.us |
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