NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
Louisville, KY
LMK
LMK
000 FXUS63 KLMK 050754 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 254 AM EST Fri Mar 5 2021 .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 239 AM EST Fri Mar 5 2021 Broad upper ridging is sitting over the Lower 48. Within this ridge, a stacked low pressure system is generating precipitation to areas near Kansas and Oklahoma, but as we move through the day, the low pressure system will begin to disband as it moves towards the Lower Mississippi Valley. The remaining precipitation will traverse the Gulf Coast. What does this mean of our CWA? A few clouds. Cirrus clouds, most noticeable in southern Kentucky, associated with the system will stream overhead. Most across the region will maintain mostly sunny skies as surface high pressure continues to get pushed south across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This will provide a northeast wind for much of the day. Expect high temperatures in the 40s, low to mid 40s across the Bluegrass region and upper 40s west of a line near Madison, IN to Lake Cumberland, KY. Tonight, any remaining clouds get pushed off to the southeast. Winds go near calm as the center of high pressure nears the Lower Ohio Valley from the north. This will help low temperatures drop to the mid to upper 20s Saturday morning. && .Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Mar 5 2021 Expect a chilly weekend as we start off with a full-latitude east coast upper trof, and an upper ridge building over the Plains. Ridging starts to win out late Sunday, but look for both weekend days to run a few degrees below climo. The first half of next week will feature a flatter pattern with low- amplitude ridging. We`ll stay dry through at least Tuesday night, with temps warming solidly above normal. By Wednesday the ridge starts breaking down to our north and west, and we could see at least some light showers brushing parts of our area in the warm advection regime. At this point will limit POPs to a slight chance over our Indiana counties. If cloud cover doesn`t hold us back too much on Wednesday, it could turn out unseasonably warm. Heading into Thursday, we see an upper trof digging into the SW desert, and fast WSW flow setting up from the Plains into the Great Lakes. A fairly active front will drop SE across Illinois and Indiana. For now we`ll carry chance POPs area-wide, tapered a bit as you head south, but think the cutoff will actually end up sharper than that. Beyond Thursday we will need to watch where this front might hang up, as it becomes a favorable setup for heavy rainfall somewhere in the Great Lakes or Ohio Valley as impulses eject out of the upper low over the Southwest. Still plenty of uncertainty in the northern stream, and how far south it will be able to drive the front, so keep tabs on the latest forecasts as we head into next week. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1225 AM EST Fri Mar 5 2021 VFR conditions remain through the TAF period. A low pressure system over the southern Plains will continue towards the southern states. This will result in cirrus streaming over area TAF sites during daylight hours today. Winds are expected to shift back and forth from the northeast to northwest. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Short Term...KDW Long Term...RAS Aviation...KDW
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS |
Script developed by: El Dorado Weather Adapted by FrankfortWeather.us |
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