NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
Louisville, KY
LMK
LMK
034 FXUS63 KLMK 270553 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 153 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Mostly clear and chilly tonight. Light rain chances Thursday. * Warmer temperatures beginning and intervals of showers and storms Thursday night through next weekend. * Confidence continues to increase for strong to severe storms Sunday into Monday, which may bring all severe hazards. && .UPDATE... Issued at 903 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Seeing a bit of a brief clearing period across the region this evening. Temps have fallen off a bit across far eastern KY where readings were down in the upper 30s to around 40. Our typical cool spots have already decoupled and have dropped into the lower 40s, while most other areas are still in the upper 40s to around 50. With the ongoing clearing, we`ll see temps continue to drop off in the mid-upper 30s in the east with upper 30s to around 40 in the I-65 corridor and points west. Mid-high clouds will stream into the region late tonight. Some isentropic upglide may produce a few light showers before dawn, west of I-65. However, most of our shower activity still looks to hold off until the afternoon hours. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Things are dry across the CWA at this hour, although we are seeing some high base cumulus development, and a few light returns on radar. Given large T/Td spreads on surface obs, and confirmation on area soundings of very dry low levels, doubt this is hitting the ground. Can`t rule out a brief sprinkle through late afternoon or early evening, but not enough to keep measurable pop mention. We`ll see a brief period of clear skies and calm winds tonight, which given the dry airmass from today, should allow for temps to drop rapidly. As a result, looking for lows mostly in the low to mid 30s. A few spots across the western CWA where clouds will set in sooner may stay around 40. We`ll see some light rain develop from NW to SE over our area tomorrow as some weak isentropic lift overspreads a weak/stalled warm frontal boundary. Overall QPF is expected to be light, but could see .1" to .2" in some spots through the day. Precipitation chances increase a bit more and move eastward through the afternoon. A temperature gradient will continue to be noted given the frontal boundary and gradient of cloud cover. Our SW should be able to reach the upper 60s to near 70, while our NE will struggle to reach 60. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Thursday Night - Saturday... Ridging over the central CONUS will begin to broaden out and deamplify. Troughing over the desert SW will move over southern Plains and into the TN/OH valleys. Simultaneously, another wave over the northern Plains will likely produce a surface low pressure system east of the Rockies. These wave, coupled with continued and strong southerly flow pumping in moisture, will bring rain chances Thursday night. Friday, the warm front will continue to push north and through the region. The northern stream wave will push through the southern Great Lakes quickly, while the southern stream wave will gradually move over the TN/OH Valleys through the weekend. With continued large scale lift and moisture, will see continued chances for showers and storms Friday and Saturday. Friday we will likely see a break in precip chances as we get deeper in the warm sector and dry out. With SW flow and a chance of drier conditions Friday, there is a chance to overachieve on temperatures, therefore have increased temps into the upper 70s and flirting with the low 80s. Sunday - Monday Morning... A trough originating off the coast of California will travel east and develop a surface low pressure system east of the Rockies on Saturday night. This low will begin to track east and strengthen, while the previous southern stream wave moves through the OH Valley. Cluster analysis reveals some uncertainties in the trough strength, however most ensembles and clusters show a signal for strong to severe storms. The EFI is high and the SOTs are low, therefore the signal is sharpening and becoming more confident over time. With PWATs around 1.6-2.0 inches there will be plenty of moisture ahead of this system. Plenty lift from troughing, CVA, and along the cold front will help lift the moisture. A strong 55-60kt LLJ will move over the region ahead of the front will help bring in strong shear. Forecast soundings reveal a few hundred joules of SBCAPE with little CIN. Low pressure is currently forecasted to move through in the overnight hours Sunday into Monday. These storm ingredients and a consistent signal for strong to severe storms could bring all severe hazards. Confidence continues to build with this long term forecast. Monday - Mid Next Week... The cold front will push through the region by Monday afternoon and surface high pressure will build in behind. Mild temperatures and conditions are expected to follow. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 153 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025 VFR conditions likely through much of this TAF period. 10-12 kft ceilings will continue to spread in from the northwest, but we`ll stay mainly dry through 12Z. Better chance for light rain (at least at our northern terminals) will arrive early this afternoon as winds veer southerly. Scattered light rain will remain possible into the evening hours, and a few TSRA will be possible near and north of I- 64 early Friday morning. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MJ SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM...SRW AVIATION...EBW
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS |
Script developed by: El Dorado Weather Adapted by FrankfortWeather.us |
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