NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
Louisville, KY

FXUS63 KLMK 010645

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
245 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

Current radar shows a few lingering showers in central and eastern
KY on the north side of the frontal boundary now draped W-E across
TN. Light showers will linger until around sunrise across our SE
CWA. Patchy fog and low stratus have also developed but also should
dissipate shortly after sunrise.

The day should see mostly to partly sunny skies with diurnal cu
development and highs reaching a bit higher than yesterday with
afternoon max temps in the low to mid 80s.

HRRR Near-Surface Smoke shows an impulse of higher concentrations
moving southward into southern Indiana and north central KY later
this afternoon and persisting overnight, so expect to see hazy
conditions by sunset.

A surface low currently over southern WI will continue to move east
across the Great Lakes throughout the day and in doing so drop
another cold front southward into our area by this evening.
Atmospheric moisture is much less though with PWATs around an inch
or less, so only included slight chance mention in the grids for
portions of southern Indiana and north central KY.

Temperatures and dew points will fall Sunday night into Monday
morning as modified cP airmass drifts over the region. Expect
morning min temps in the mid 50s across southern Indiana increasing
southward to low 60s across southern KY.


.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

There is excellent model and ensemble agreement on the large-scale
pattern for the upcoming work week, with broad scale troughing
dominating most of the eastern U.S. and surface high pressure
resting just north of our region at least to midweek. By Wednesday
an inverted trough over the Appalachians could allow for some light
rain showers to form along and east of the I-75 corridor. Pattern
stays similar for Thursday/Friday before showing a break Saturday.
By then, ensembles wash out the pattern aloft, but deterministic
models individually show varying shortwave ridging/troughing passing
through. Even with any disturbances coming through, available
moisture is somewhat limited, so will keep any rain chances for this
period fairly low.

Temperatures for most of the week will be a few degrees below
normal. Models spreads are real low, again indicating the confidence
in solutions mentioned above. We get closer to normal by the end of
the week though and to start the weekend.


.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move through TN along a weak
frontal boundary while radar shows a few light showers moving
through central into SE KY. Expect intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions
through Sunday morning as low stratus and patchy fog set up over all
sites except SDF, which should remain VFR throughout the period. NW
winds will pick during the day with possible gusts up to 15kt under
SCT to BKN skies. By late afternoon, smoke from western wildfires
may mix down to the surface and restrict VIS to low end VFR/high end
MVFR. Another weak cold front will also drop southward into the area
bringing a slight chance of light showers, but probability and
confidence is too small at this point to include in TAFs.




Short Term...CG
Long Term...RJS

Forecast Discussion from:
Script developed by: El Dorado Weather
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